Chute libre of a magical deal

I don't really have anything to add about the economic turmoil we are currently engulfed in [[1]]. Whether you are reading this on a day when the market is up or, as French speakers might say, chute libre, is less important than America's most valuable export for the last 50 years - stability and a reasonably fair place to trade - is probably going to be less of a thing.

Matt Levine of Bloomberg summarizes what the deal that was just blown up looked like:

Most observers, outside the worthless sycophants that dominate right wing American news, attribute the tariffs to being the product of a deranged and rapidly declining mind surrounded by idiot yes-men. A rare counterpoint is offered by Yanis Varoufakis, former Greek Finance minister:

He [Trump] has become increasingly convinced that a terrible tipping point is approaching: as America’s output diminishes in relative terms, the global demand for the dollar rises faster than US incomes. The dollar then has to appreciate even faster to keep up with the reserve needs of the rest of the world. This can’t go on forever.

For when US deficits exceed some threshold, foreigners will panic. They will sell their dollar-denominated assets and find some other currency to hoard. Americans will be left amid international chaos with a wrecked manufacturing sector, derelict financial markets and an insolvent government. This nightmare scenario has convinced Trump that he is on a mission to save America: that he has a duty to usher in a new international order.

The critical second phase of this plan requires foreign governments to, one by one, eventually come to a deal with the United States on its terms. In the short term, the increased consumer costs are to be canceled out by other countries devaluing their currency by cutting interest rates in the face of economic turmoil [[2]].

I think even if this master plan exists - which is really giving this administration far too much credit - it's probably still doomed due to assumptions related to (1) relative trade not being fungible [[3]], (2) multilateral international relations exist [[4]], and Trumps general inability to stick to any kind of long term strategy [[5]].

Anyway, check out this Punk Garden we stumbled into outside the Grande Bibliotheque after a French workshop:

Now that spring is upon us, we've been trying to get out more and connect with communities of like minded folks. I think the highlight of this in the last several weeks was an event called Trans Day of Snack put on by lowkiki.mtl wherein we got together and wrote supportive letters to be directed to trans folks in the United States.

I talked about visiting the Musee des Beaux Arts (Museum of Fine Arts) some time ago as a field trip for my French course. But it's a big enough place - several sprawling buildings that are connected by tunnels, as you do in Montreal - that, when my partner expressed interest in visiting for the first time, it was easy to find parts I had not yet seen.

Finally, we went to a game night/language exchange hosted by a small restaurant in Centre Ville. It was fun but unremarkable save for learning the insane French spelling for the word "Smurf" (s/o the game Code Names)

[[1]]: (goes on to write a billion goddamned words about it)

[[2]]: Notably this did not happen and - when it looks like US bonds were in a state of free fall and other currencies were appreciating against it early this week (cheaper dollar would mean foreign goods costing even more for Americans) - the administration reversed course on most of the tariffs

[[3]]: Ignore for a moment that only a few countries produce, like, chocolate or coffee; switching to alternatives and re-configuring supply chains is going to necessarily be expensive. And, importantly, no one will do it when it can all be changed on a whim of a shady real estate mogul/reality TV star

[[4]]: Famously Mark Carney, the current and probably future prime minister of Canada and former head of the Bank of England, is a good example of how interwoven the liberal capitalist international order is. Imagining they will come hat-in-hand, one at a time, to make a deal with a guy who just broke a series of deals with them is, to me, fairly delusional

[[5]]: I would give examples outside of this but it's unnecessary. At time of this writing, he has already exempted some electronics and will likely continue to cut deals with US companies willing to kiss his ring - a condition that does not lend itself of consumer or investor confidence - the "good at making financial assets" bit above requires stuff like "the rule of law" and "tomorrow the president won't decide to upend world trade networks"